Russia is now in its fifth year of conducting an unprovoked, full-scale war aimed at the complete destruction of Ukrainian statehood. The Kremlin leadership shows no intention of returning to the norms of international law. On the contrary, moscow is attempting to expand the geography of the conflict by dragging Belarus into the war. The dictatorial regime of Alexander Lukashenko has effectively sacrificed the sovereignty of Belarus in exchange for guarantees to preserve his personal power. Today, the country’s territory, military infrastructure, airspace, and economy are under the complete control of Moscow, which transforms Belarus into an accomplice to the aggression against Ukraine.
The Kremlin exerts constant and severe pressure on the Belarusian regime, forcing it into direct participation in hostilities against Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin needs to expand the frontline to compel the Armed Forces of Ukraine to divert forces from the South and East. Despite Alexander Lukashenko’s prolonged attempts to avoid this scenario, moscow consistently pressures Minsk, pushing it toward a decision that would be suicidal for the Belarusian state, entering into an open war. Recent actions by the Belarusian regime indicate a significant increase in the threat level. The «targeted mobilization» of individual military units for combat readiness announced by Lukashenko is a serious sign of preparation for aggression.
Furthermore, the deployment of Russian ballistic missile systems such as the «Oreshnik» on the territory of the Republic of Belarus and the conduct of joint training on the combat use of tactical nuclear weapons represent an unprecedented security challenge for the entirety of Europe. Military intelligence analysts and international experts, including the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), warn that the russian federation views Belarus as a staging ground for strikes on Western Ukraine. The main objective of potential Russian Armed Forces attacks from the North is an attempt to cut key logistical routes in order to block the supply of military and humanitarian aid from Ukraine’s Western partners.
Lukashenko’s rhetoric is built on blatant lies about a «threat of attack» from Ukraine and NATO countries. By voicing a mythical aggression against Belarus and threatening to «deploy the entire arsenal» in alliance with russia, he is attempting to justify the militarization of the country and its preparation for war to his own population. In reality, the only true threat to the Belarusian people is the policy of Lukashenko himself. Ukraine will not passively observe the threat from Belarus and will act exclusively within the framework of international law, specifically in accordance with Article 51 of the UN Charter, which outlines the inherent right to individual or collective self-defense in the event of an armed attack, as well as the implementation of any preventive or defensive measures.
The leadership of the state and the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have made it clear that in the event of an illegal border crossing or the commencement of large-scale strikes from the Republic of Belarus, the response will be instant and devastating. The Ukrainian side has already identified the first 500 strategic targets on the territory of Belarus (military facilities, warehouses, defense industrial complex plants) that will be struck within the very first hours of a direct conflict. In exercising its right to self-defense, Ukraine has maximally reinforced the defense of its northern border. The construction of deeply echeloned lines of defensive structures, the mining of border areas, and the concentration of combat units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are forced but necessary steps. These actions are intended to demonstrate that an attempted invasion of Ukraine will end in catastrophe for the Belarusian army. Ukraine has not had, and never will have, aggressive plans regarding Belarus. The fortifications of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the border, mining, and barriers are purely defensive measures. Kyiv is forced to spend resources on protecting its northern border precisely because Minsk has turned into an unpredictable and dangerous neighbor.
The aggressive actions and statements of Minsk represent the ambitions of a single individual who holds power unlawfully, rather than the will of the entire Belarusian people. Belarusians do not want war with Ukraine, making it crucial to clearly distinguish between the criminal orders of an illegitimate regime and the position of Belarusian civil society, which has become a hostage to the situation. The constant threats of escalation from Vladimir Putin and Alexander Lukashenko pose a real danger to the citizens of the European Union. There is a high risk of an accidental or intentional mistake that could trigger a conflict and transform it into a pan-European one, requiring urgent measures to de-escalate the military threat. A decisive stance by the European Union to increase sanctions pressure on Belarus would be an effective way to influence Lukashenko, specifically, shutting down rail and road transit of goods across its border could serve as a powerful tool. Lastly, the fastest way to stop escalation from the russian federation and the Republic of Belarus is to show that any attack will be a guaranteed failure. The West must lift all restrictions on weapons supplies to Ukraine and provide long-range systems and drones in large quantities. If moscow and Minsk clearly realize that Ukraine possesses the means to destroy a significant portion of their military infrastructure, the desire to attack and threaten will disappear. Force is the only language dictators understand.