Yurii Shulipa – Director of the International
Union «Institute of National Politics», Honorary Consul of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria in Ukraine in 2022-2024
Abstract
This publication provides a critical strategic audit of the war on its fourth anniversary, February 24, 2026. The author argues that the conflict persists because the West and Ukraine have failed to acknowledge the Fourth World Hybrid War, which officially began with the occupation of Crimea on February 20, 2014. By analyzing the «One-City Empire» doctrine, the paper exposes Russia’s fundamental vulnerability: its total dependence on the imperial center, Moscow, and its overstretched strategic depth.
The study highlights the catastrophic failure of Western «escalation management» (the Sullivan-Scholz doctrine), which has kept Moscow a sanctuary while bleeding Ukraine through a managed war of attrition. Through a comparative analysis of military production (2022–2026), the author reveals a staggering disparity: Russia has outpaced both Ukraine and the West in the industrial mobilization of ballistic and cruise missiles.
The publication concludes with a decisive strategic imperative: to end the war by February 2027, Ukraine must shift from «reactive defense» to «strategic liquidation.» This requires massive missile strikes on military and energy infrastructure within Moscow and the Volga River region, destroying the aggressor’s capacity to exist as a war-making entity. Only the physical neutralization of the imperial center, supported by the seizure of frozen Russian assets, can restore international law and secure a lasting peace.
Keywords: Fourth World Hybrid War; One-City Empire; Moscow Sanctuary; Strategic Depth Vulnerability; Volga Energy Collapse; Sullivan-Scholz Doctrine; Attrition Parity; Russian Military-Industrial Complex (OMK); International Law Restoration; Asymmetric Liquidation.
The reasons for the current situation
After four years of a full-scale aggressive war against Ukraine, we are forced to conclude: the strategy of ‘slowly strangling’ the aggressor has completely failed. Based on the author’s calculations from more than three years ago, he argued that without achieving the median rate of eliminating 2,000 to 5,000 Russian-fascist invaders per day, the Kremlin’s military machine will have time to regenerate [1]. Today, we see confirmation: Moscow is not only not exhausted, it has adapted its economy and demographics to a conveyor belt of death.
Knowing in advance of Moscow’s impending large-scale conventional aggression against Ukraine, the author, in his work «Putin’s Military Plans Against Ukraine for 2021,» noted: «In the event of an attempted military invasion of the free territories of Ukraine, the doctrine of total annihilation of infiltrated enemy forces will be adopted by default. Only through the total annihilation of enemy forces can the military-political leadership of Russia be forced to abandon the seizure of the free territories of Ukraine.» «The enemy will retreat when the Ukrainians finally start killing their enemies en masse» [2].
1. Deconstructing the «Acceptability» of Losses
Both before the outbreak of a full-scale war and in 2022–2025, the author repeatedly noted that for the Kremlin, human resources are merely expendable, possessing no political value. By 2026, this thesis had become an axiom. Everyone could already see this.
The Moscow fascist regime has built a system of unilateral, imperative «blood for debt» contracts, where the deaths of marginalized segments of the population are financially beneficial to their families. For deep-seated Russia, the death of a soldier has become a business and a social boost for his relatives. As is customary in authoritarian fascist terrorist regimes in Russia and its occupied zones, a «Repressive Filter» has been established. The absence of political opposition and total fear allow Moscow to ignore figures that, for any Western democracy, would immediately lead to the government’s resignation.
For these reasons, the daily reports of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces should be viewed with objective criticism.
Why is 2,500 a magic number? Let’s expand on the thesis about the need to eliminate at least 2,500 occupiers per day.
Replenishment vs. Disposal: As of 2025-2026, the Russian Federation’s mobilization machine (covert or partial) is capable of generating 30,000 to 45,000 new contract soldiers/mobilized personnel per month.
The elimination of the Russian-fascist invaders is physics substantiated by mathematics. If the aggressor’s losses average 800-1,100 people per day, this merely maintains the status quo (dynamic equilibrium). Moscow manages to «deliver» meat faster than it can be processed at the front.
Taking into account the intensification of covert mobilization in the spring of 2026, it is necessary to factor in a difference of 1,000 units between daily replacement losses and the number of Russian-fascist invaders eliminated.
2. How should this formula work in practice?
Between the 800-1,000 units of meat delivered daily and the number of units eliminated during the same day, the aggressor’s actual losses should amount to 1,800-2,000 Russian-fascist invaders per day. These are the minimum values.
The loss corridor between daily replacement and losses should be at least 1,000-1,500 units or more.
The elimination of Russian-fascist invaders is of paramount strategic importance. Orcs are the fuel of war, and as long as they survive, Moscow’s war against Ukraine will continue. Russian fascists bring only murder, suffering, grief, misery, and destruction.
Following the Defense Minister, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy emphasized that the ideal option for the Ukrainian Armed Forces is the elimination of 50,000 Russian-fascist soldiers per month. This goal is aimed at preventing Russia from rebuilding its forces. Zelenskyy noted that achieving this level of destruction is a difficult but necessary task to force Russia to reconsider its war strategy.
However, according to the author’s calculations, eliminating 50,000 Russian-fascist invaders per month is insufficient losses for the aggressor if Ukraine wants to end the defensive war by the end of 2026. The ideal figure for a more rapid conclusion of Moscow’s war against Ukraine is an average of 75,000 Russian-fascist invaders per month [3].
Severe Arms Shortage
There are signs of a severe shortage of various types of weapons. Over the past four years of full-scale war, not a single Ukrainian-made missile has hit a single military target in Moscow or the Moscow region.
Between 2022 and 2025, the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Strategic Industries lacked a firm state order for long-range missile systems. The failure to create the means to strike Moscow in four years is not due to a lack of funds. It’s due to a lack of political will, a lack of strategic understanding, and corruption paralysis.
Arms production security issues have not been fully resolved. While Ukrainian volunteers are assembling drones on the fly, state-owned defense industry giants remain targets for Russian missile strikes due to the lack of underground factories and decentralization.
The Ukrainian defense industry is stagnant and unable to meet the existential challenges facing the Ukrainian state.
To prove this, we turn to publicly available data on strategic weapons production in Ukraine, and then, for a comparative analysis, to those on the aggressor’s territory.
Table 1. Statistics on Ukraine’s Strategic Weapons Production (2022–2026)
(Estimated data based on public reports and strike intensity analysis)
| Weapon Category | Project / Designation | Production Status (as of 2026) | Estimated Quantity (Units) | Notes |
| Medium-Range Missiles (up to 2000 km) | «Hrim-2» (Sapsan) | Experimental prototypes / Piece-work production | 3 – 7 | Absence of serial production due to sabotage and a deficit of critical components. |
| Cruise Missiles (1000+ km) | «Neptune» (Long-range modification) | Small-scale production | 20 – 40 | Primarily utilized for strikes on Crimea and the Black Sea coast of the Russian Federation. |
| Missile-Drones (1500+ km) | «Palyanytsia» and analogs | Serial production (makeshift/improvised assembly) | 150 – 300 | Not full-scale missiles; low speed and payload mass fail to neutralize hardened targets in Moscow. |
| Anti-Ballistic Missile Systems (ABM) | «Domestic NATO» Complexes | Design stage / Non-existent | 0 | Absolute dependency on Western deliveries of Patriot and SAMP/T systems. |
| Air Defense Systems (Medium Range) | Modernized S-300 / Buk | Restoration / Repair only | 10 – 15 | Production of new radar stations and interceptor missiles has virtually failed to materialize. |
Comparison based on open source data, Western intelligence reports and analysis of the intensity of shelling.
Table 2. Comparative Analysis of Armament Production Rates: Ukraine vs. Russia
(Estimated Data for the 2024–2026 Period)
| Weapon Category | Ukraine (Domestic Production) | Russian Federation (Domestic Production) | Gap Ratio |
| Ballistic Missiles (600–2000 km) | 0 – 2 units per year (Project «Hrim-2») | 450 – 550 units per year («Iskander-M», DPRK-style analogs) | 1 : 250 |
| Cruise Missiles (1000+ km) | 10 – 15 units per year (Modified «Neptune») | 900 – 1100 units per year (Kh-101, «Kalibr») | 1 : 70 |
| Heavy Strike Drones (Shahed/Analogs) | 1,500 – 2,500 units per year | 6,000 – 8,000 units per year («Geran-2», «Gerbera») | 1 : 4 |
| ABM / Air Defense Systems (New Complexes) | 0 | 30 – 50 units per year (S-400, S-350, «Pantsir-S») | Total Dependency |
| Artillery Shells (152/155 mm) | 100,000 – 150,000 per year | 3.5 – 4.5 million per year (including DPRK supplies) | 1 : 35 |
This comparison illustrates the sheer industrial asymmetry of the Fourth World Hybrid War. While Russia has fully transitioned to a centralized war economy, Ukraine remains dangerously reliant on external aid for high-tech capabilities. The 1:250 ratio in ballistic missile production is the primary reason the Russian rear, specifically Moscow, remains largely unaffected by the conflict, allowing the Kremlin to maintain a high-intensity offensive without facing domestic consequences.
Table 3. Refined Data: Cumulative Totals (2022–2026)
Summary of the 4-year gap: The scale of the accumulated disparity.
| Weapon Category | Ukraine (Total Produced 2022–2026) | Russian Federation (Total Produced + Received 2022–2026) | Status as of Feb 24, 2026 |
| Ballistic Missiles | 10 – 15 (including prototypes) | 2,200 – 2,500 | Total Russian Dominance |
| Cruise Missiles | 60 – 80 («Neptune» all mods.) | 4,000 – 4,500 | Russia maintains strike capacity |
| Long-Range Strike UAVs | 4,000 – 6,000 (all types) | 18,000 – 22,000 | Quantitative Russian advantage |
| Artillery Shells (152/155 mm) | ~400,000 – 500,000 | ~14 – 16 million (including DPRK supplies) | Critical Ukrainian deficit |
Clearly, the conclusions are not in Ukraine’s favor. After four years of full-scale war, Ukraine has failed to overcome its industrial asymmetry with the aggressor.
While Moscow already in 2022 completely switched its economy to a war footing and churns out hundreds of ballistic missiles, the Ukrainian defense industry continues to exist in a «one-off» mode. There is no mobilization of the population in the defense industry in Ukraine.
Acceptability of losses: The huge imbalance in the production of shells and missiles allows Moscow to maintain the same intensity of the war that makes its losses «acceptable,» since Ukraine cannot respond with symmetrical destruction of the enemy’s rear infrastructure.
«The production figures for its own missiles for 2022-2026 are a death sentence for the current leadership of the Ukrainian defense industry. While the enemy produces hundreds of Iskander and Tsirkon missiles per year, Ukraine produces a few Neptun missiles. This isn’t a resource shortage—it’s a strategic paralysis that makes it impossible to fulfill the plan to eliminate 2,500 occupiers per day and shift the war’s center of gravity to enemy territory.»
To all these problematic factors, we must add the slowdown in the robotization of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, replacing humans with robotic machines and equipment, primarily on the defensive line. For this reason, there is still no adequate technical solution for the physical feasibility of eliminating 2,500 or more Russian-fascist invaders per day.
«If we summarize the results of four years, the picture becomes even more frightening. Over the period 2022–2026, Moscow responded to every Ukrainian ballistic missile with two hundred of its own. This isn’t just a ‘lag’—it’s the result of the deliberate stifling of Ukrainian sovereignty through technology restrictions and the lack of internal mobilization of the defense industry. By February 2026, we have a production gap that makes a symmetrical response impossible without a radical shift in Western policy.»
Medium pro-Russianism «Western aid» sector
The current level of Western military aid only allows Ukraine to «not lose,» but does not allow it to inflict damage beyond the Russian army’s regenerative capacity.
The fact that, after 1,460 days of war, the skies over Moscow remain clear of Ukrainian missiles is a verdict on Kyiv’s defense policy and the cowardice of the West, which still fears «escalation» more than the genocide of Ukrainians.
This thesis is a key accusation against both the Ukrainian leadership and its Western partners. Where are the Ukrainian missiles? This is a fundamental technological failure.
This is a «verdict» on the current international security system. It clearly demonstrates the monstrous disproportion between the actual military capabilities of the Russian Federation, which has switched to a war footing, and the «metered» Western aid, which only maintains Ukraine’s viability but does not provide it with the tools for victory.
The author’s interview in August 2023 clearly stated: Ukraine’s victory is being delayed due to Washington’s position. In 2026, this is confirmed by facts.
Below is the data compiled from intelligence reports, SIPRI data, ISW analysis, and your previous publications for the period 2022–2026.
Table 4. Comparison of Russian Military Production Volumes vs. Western Military Aid to Ukraine
(Cumulative and annual indicators as of February 2026)
| Weapon Category / Resource | Production and Supplies in the RF (2022–2026) | Western Aid to Ukraine (2022–2026) | Gap Ratio / Status |
| War Financing | ~$450 – $500 billion (direct military expenditures) | ~$180 – $210 billion (military aid) | 2.5 : 1 in favor of the RF |
| Artillery Shells | ~14 – 16 million units (domestic + DPRK/Iran) | ~4.5 – 5.5 million units (all calibers) | 3 : 1 (AFU shell famine) |
| Ballistic Missiles | ~2,500 – 3,000 units (Iskander, KN-23) | ~300 – 500 units (ATACMS, all modifications) | 6 : 1 (parity deficit) |
| Tanks (New + Refurbished) | ~4,500 – 5,500 units | ~800 – 1,100 units (Leopard, Abrams, Challenger) | 5 : 1 (armored vehicle deficit) |
| Air Defense / Missile Defense (Batteries) | ~120 – 150 new launchers (S-400, Buk) | ~25 – 35 batteries (Patriot, NASAMS, Iris-T) | RF protection level is 4x higher |
| Strike UAVs (Shahed) | ~22,000 – 25,000 units | ~1,000 – 2,000 units (Western analogs) | 12 : 1 (aerial dominance) |
This table is the final nail in the coffin of the «containment» policy and the exposure of the illusion of «enormous aid.» Western media float billions of dollars, but these figures conceal old equipment from warehouses or funding for the US and EU’s own military-industrial complex. At the same time, Russia is pouring cash into new production lines. By 2026, the gap in ballistic missile production has become critical: for every ATACMS, Moscow responds with ten Iskander missiles.
The data confirm the author’s thesis that both former and, in many ways, current Western administrations are pursuing a pro-Russian policy of «metering» military aid to Ukraine.
These data prove that former US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan and former German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have adopted a treasonous, sabotaging stance toward Ukraine: aid to Ukraine has always been «too little and too late.» A 3:1 ratio of shells and 5:1 of tanks isn’t a logistical error; it’s a strategy of «managed conflict,» where Ukraine wasn’t allowed to lose, but was categorically denied the tools to defeat Moscow.
Let’s consider the economic ontology of war. Moscow spends over 40% of its budget on the war. The West, meanwhile, spends less than 0.2% of its total GDP. This proves that for Russia, war is the raison d’être, while for the West, it’s an annoying expense they seek to minimize at the expense of Ukrainian lives.
«This table is mathematical proof of betrayal. Over four years of war, the West, with a total GDP 25 times greater than Russia’s, has managed to lose the industrial race to a backward dictatorship. While Moscow produces millions of shells, Western leaders debate the ‘inadmissibility of escalation.’ This isn’t aid to Ukraine; it’s deliberately maintaining the intensity of genocide while preserving Moscow’s security. Without the immediate destruction of production centers in the Russian Federation, these figures guarantee us war until 2027 and beyond.»
Time of Truth
Previous and, to some extent, current representatives of Western administrations bear institutional responsibility for prolonging the war in the criminal interests of the Russian Federation.
In the administration of former US President Donald Biden, an architecture of «managed chaos» was created under the guise of «preventing escalation,» implemented by Jake Sullivan, in the criminal interests of Russia. This figure embodies the policy of fear of the collapse of the Russian Federation. His doctrine of «slow strangulation» has in fact turned out to be a doctrine of «slow extermination of Ukraine.» William Burns (CIA): Secret diplomacy and «red lines» that Washington has drawn for itself in its dialogue with the Kremlin. This is a behind-the-scenes collaboration in preserving Moscow’s subjectivity.
They continued the Medium pro-Russianism state with the aggressor. While key Washington advisers see Russia as an «essential security partner» (nuclear case, containment of China), Ukraine will not receive weapons from the West to destroy 2,500 occupiers per day.
The European «peacekeepers» also aided the aggressor by sabotaging the defense industry. Olaf Scholz, who suffered from the Taurus delay syndrome, became a symbol of German indecisiveness. Four years of delays under the pretext of «drawing NATO into the war» gave Moscow time to strengthen its defenses and adapt its economy. Brussels bureaucracy has demonstrated its inability to convert the European defense industry to a wartime footing. The million shells promised for years is an indicator that Europe still hopes for a «return to business as usual» after the war.
«We must stop using euphemisms.» What the Biden-Sullivan administration called «responsible conflict management» is, in reality, a classic pro-Russian policy paid for with the lives of Ukrainians. Sabotaging long-range weapons supplies and banning strikes on Moscow is a deliberate attempt to preserve Putin’s regime as a «lesser evil» compared to the collapse of the Russian Federation. But history teaches us: you can’t negotiate with an aggressor for whom your destruction is an existential goal. If by February 24, 2026, Western elites don’t shift their paradigm from «saving Russia from chaos» to «eliminating Russia as a threat,» they will become official accomplices in the most protracted genocide of the 21st century.
«After four years of war, it’s time to recognize that so-called ‘Western aid’ is a tool for containing Ukraine, not for defeating Moscow.» Analyzing the White House’s pro-Russian course back in 2023, the author warned: rationing weapons is a conscious choice in favor of prolonging the war [4]. Today we see the result: Moscow remains untouchable, and its economy, although declining, continues to fuel the war machine due to Western indecisiveness. The West fears the collapse of the Russian Federation, not realizing that this empire itself is the main source of global chaos.
There’s only one demand right now: stop covertly supporting the aggressor’s survival. Ukraine must be given the right and the means to destroy the enemy in its lair—in Moscow—and on such a scale (2,500+ per day) that within a year, Russia’s offensive potential will be physically nullified.»
Architects of Defeat: How the West Legitimized World War IV (2014–2022)
The Western political establishment deliberately chose the path of «geopolitical autism,» ignoring the obvious facts of the outbreak of the Fourth Hybrid World War on February 20, 2014.
Therefore, the main reason Moscow’s war will drag on until 2027 is due to the eight-year period of «pacification,» during which the West not only ignored aggression but actively financed Moscow’s preparations for a full-scale war. Let’s consider three main factors behind the West’s assistance in Moscow’s preparations for a full-scale war.
- The Minsk process as an instrument of the West’s hybrid capitulation.
France and Germany (Hollande, Merkel, and later Macron and Scholz) imposed the «Minsk Agreements» on Ukraine, which, in the context of Moscow’s Fourth Hybrid World War against the West, were not a peace plan, but an active measure by the Russian secret services. •
- Moscow’s goal: To implant the «cancerous tumor» of the ORDLO into Ukraine’s political body to block its Euro-Atlantic course.
- The West’s role: Acting as «guarantors,» Western leaders de facto recognized the sovereignty of the Kremlin’s puppet regimes, ignoring the direct occupation that began on February 20, 2014.
- Nord Stream 2: Energy financing of aggression.
While Moscow minted medals for the seizure of Crimea, Berlin and Washington promoted gas projects.
- Betrayal of security interests: Every euro paid for Russian gas after 2014 went toward the development of Zircon and Kinzhal missiles, as well as systems that will kill Ukrainians in 2025–2026.
- Geopolitical calculation: Gas pipelines were built as a means of bypassing Ukraine, freeing Moscow for a major war.
- Abandoning sanctions «from hell».
Until 2022, the West categorically refused to impose preemptive sanctions, citing a «reluctance to provoke Putin.»
- Result: This hesitation was perceived in the Kremlin as a green light. Putin was given eight years to implement import substitution in the military-industrial complex and accumulate foreign exchange reserves, making his economy resilient to the first waves of restrictions in 2022.
Western «blindness» as a form of complicity
It must be stated frankly: the Western elite was not «wrong» – they deliberately traded Ukraine’s security for the temporary comfort of their own economies. The Minsk agreements and Nord Stream 2 were not diplomacy, but a form of capitulation to the Fourth World Hybrid War. When the date «20.02.14» appeared on the occupiers’ medals in 2014, the West should have severed all ties with Moscow. Instead, he fed the beast for eight years, only to express «deep concern» in 2022 that the beast had escalated to mass murder.
Analytical Table: Simulation Period (2014-2022)
| Sabotage Tool | Virtual Goal (The West) | Real Effect (Moscow) |
| Minsk-1 / Minsk-2 Agreements | «Diplomatic resolution» | Preparation of a bridgehead for a full-scale invasion. |
| Normandy Format | «Containment of escalation» | Buying time for the modernization and rearmament of the Russian military. |
| Business as Usual | «Influence through trade» | Financing the Military-Industrial Complex (MIC) and corrupting Western political elites. |
| Refusal of NATO MAP | «Avoiding provocation of the RF» | Confirmation that Ukraine remains in a «gray zone» vulnerable to attack. |
This table presents a stage-by-stage analysis of the main factors stimulating Moscow to launch a full-scale war against Ukraine. It demonstrates that the current crisis in 2026 is not an accidental failure of diplomacy, but a result of a decade-long policy that prioritized the comfort of Western economies over the survival of the international legal order. By keeping Ukraine in a «gray zone» and funding the Russian war machine through energy exports, the West effectively co-authored the tragedy that unfolded in February 2022.
In 2026, the current pro-Russian course of the White House and the European Union is a direct continuation of the policy of 2014. They cannot admit the need to destroy Moscow, because then they would have to admit their criminal negligence over the past 12 years.
The 2021 Ultimatum: Moscow’s Roadmap for European War
In December 2021, three months before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Kremlin issued a formal ultimatum to the United States and NATO. Using the blunt language of Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, who demanded that NATO «collect its belongings and roll back to the 1997-1998 borders,» Moscow officially unveiled its strategic map for the Fourth World Hybrid War. This was not a diplomatic opening for negotiation; it was an official designation of the future theater of military operations in Europe. By demanding a withdrawal from Eastern and Central Europe, Putin signaled that the sovereignty of Poland, the Baltic states, and the Balkan nations was no longer recognized by the Kremlin.
The Strategic Trap: Why the West Misread the Signal
The tragedy of 2022–2026 lies in the fact that Western capitals treated this ultimatum as «geopolitical posturing» rather than a declaration of intent. * Ukraine as a Tactical Phase: In Moscow’s vision, the destruction of Ukraine is merely a prerequisite for the kinetic assault on NATO’s eastern flank.
- Testing the 1998 Boundary: Every day that the West limits Ukraine’s ability to strike Moscow is a day that confirms Ryabkov’s thesis: that the West lacks the will to defend the post-1991 order.
«The Ryabkov ultimatum was the ‘Munich 2021’ moment. By failing to launch a preemptive strike against the Russian war machine then, the West allowed the designated theater of war to expand. Today, in 2026, the ‘Moscow Sanctuary’ policy is the final gift to Putin, enabling him to regroup and prepare for the push toward the 1998 borders. The war will not end at the borders of Ukraine; it will only end where the Russian imperial center is physically neutralized.»
Ontology of Aggression: War as the Purpose of Existence for the Russian Federation
For Western democracies, war is an anomaly, an unfortunate glitch in the system that must be quickly corrected. For the Russian Federation, the situation is diametrically opposed: war is the foundation of its internal legitimacy and the only way its economy and statehood can function.
The Russian government lacks a mandate from the people through democratic elections. The only way to consolidate society in the Russian Federation is to search for an «external enemy,» «defend a besieged fortress,» and resort to military aggression against states independent of Moscow. Without war, the Russian state begins to crumble under the weight of internal contradictions and corruption.
The legitimacy of the Moscow regime is ensured exclusively through violence, and war is the main «holder.»
The Russian economy is an economy of death. By 2026, Russia had completely transformed into a military-industrial camp. The death of a soldier at the front became the main social elevator, and missile production the only functioning industrial sector. For such a system, peace means economic and political collapse.
The evil empire demands expansion. The dynamics of expansion: Like any archaic empire, the Russian Federation can only exist in expansionist mode. For Moscow, halting its advance means the onset of internal decay. Therefore, the Fourth Hybrid World War, launched by Moscow on February 20, 2014, has no ultimate geographic goal—it is aimed at the destruction of any external order not subordinate to the Kremlin.
The Messianic Destruction of Moscow
The essence of the Russian Federation’s existence in its current form is not the creation, but the destruction of civilized models of life. Moscow is waging war against the West not for territory, but for the right to destroy the values of freedom, which pose an existential threat to tyranny.
«Western governments are making a fatal mistake by trying to find a ‘way out of war’ through negotiations. They fail to understand that for the Russian Federation, war is also its natural mode of existence. For the Kremlin, peace with Ukraine or the West is tantamount to an act of self-destruction. Russia is a geopolitical parasite that survives only as long as it devours the bodies of other countries. Therefore, the only way to stop aggression is not by «freezing the conflict,» but by physically destroying the agent of aggression. You can’t negotiate with a state whose raison d’être is to destroy you».
Western governments (primarily the US administration) act as de facto guarantors of Russia’s territorial integrity. They are terrified of chaos, nuclear unrest, and the rise of China, so they deliberately hold back Moscow’s military defeat.
Maintaining Russia within its current borders is a fundamental mistake that guarantees perpetual war.
The «One-City Empire» Doctrine: Why Moscow is the Only Legitimate Target
- The Moscow-Centric Vulnerability
Russia is not a federal state; it is an archaic empire where all resources, command structures, and political legitimacy are concentrated in a single point: Moscow.
If Moscow remains untouched, the war is «external» for the Russian elite and the general population. As long as the imperial center remains a sanctuary of light, heat, and safety, the Kremlin can continue its war of attrition indefinitely.
- The Strategic Failure: By February 24, 2026, the fact that no Ukrainian missiles have systematically struck the Kremlin, the Ministry of Defense on Znamenka, or the FSB headquarters on Lubyanka is a catastrophic strategic omission.
- The Winter 2025–2026 Energy Crisis: A Missed Opportunity
The winter of 2025–2026 was the perfect window to collapse the Russian war machine.
- Volga Power Plants: To end the war, Ukraine needed to strike the main hydroelectric and thermal power plants on the Volga River. Destroying these facilities would have triggered a total energy collapse in the Central Federal District, paralyzing military production and logistics.
- Strategic Naivety: Instead of an aggressive «Energy Offensive,» the Ukrainian leadership remained in a reactive, defensive posture. They waited for Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, wasting resources on passive defense instead of creating an unmanageable crisis for the aggressor.
- Result: While Ukraine suffered from defense-only tactics, the Russian rear remained warm and productive, fueling the genocide for another year.
- Deconstructing the «Post-Russian Space» (The Fear Factor)
The West’s pro-Russian course is rooted in the fear that a strike on Moscow or a collapse of the Volga power grid would lead to a chaotic disintegration of the RF.
The disintegration of the RF is not a «risk to be managed» but a precondition for peace. Even a fragmenting Russia will be less dangerous than a centralized, Moscow-led empire. The Western obsession with «stability» in a genocidal state is a moral and strategic bankruptcy.
The Myth of Strategic Depth: Russia’s Great Vulnerability
For centuries, Russia has relied on its vast geography as an impenetrable shield. However, in the age of precision warfare, this «strategic depth» has transformed into its greatest liability. Beyond the fortified gates of Moscow, the Russian Federation is a hollow giant—hundreds of miles of «empty,» uncontrolled space where the central government maintains only a ghost of its authority. This is not a unified fortress; it is a fragile network of overstretched supply lines and unprotected infrastructure.
The Kremlin’s focus on the «Moscow Sanctuary» has left the rest of the empire’s body exposed. These thousands of kilometers of «void» cannot be patrolled, monitored, or defended. For a mobile and technologically advanced force, this vastness is not an obstacle, but a corridor. By bypassing the static front lines and striking through these empty spaces directly at the imperial heart and the critical energy nodes on the Volga, Ukraine can shatter the illusion of Russian invincibility. Moscow is an island in a sea of neglected territory; once the center is severed from its resources, the «empty space» will swallow what remains of the empire.
«The vastness of Russia is a psychological trap. While the West fears the ‘endless’ Russian landscape, they fail to see that it is a landscape of emptiness. There are no millions of soldiers guarding the Volga or the Siberian forests. There is only a massive, unguarded gap between the Kremlin’s ambitions and the reality of its crumbling infrastructure. Striking through this ‘void’ is the fastest way to bring the war to its logical and final conclusion.»
Conclusions
Objective reality shows that Moscow’s full-scale war against Ukraine will last at least another year, until February 24, 2027, and will extend beyond five years. This is even assuming the West stops displaying political victimhood in the face of the aggressor.
Since Ukraine, due to an acute shortage of offensive weapons, is unable to reduce the offensive potential of the aggressor, there is a high probability of a military attack by Moscow on the Baltic states (90%) [5]. This event could occur in the spring or fall of 2026.
Summary and Recommendations: Eliminating the «Center of Evil»
In the fourth year of the full-scale phase of the Fourth World Hybrid War, it has become clear: peace will not come as long as the aggressor maintains its sovereignty and security within its imperial center.
- Recommendations to the Ukrainian government: Transition to «Asymmetric Retaliation»
Moscow must be the primary focus of attack. All available long-range assets (Neptune missiles, Palyanitsya drone missiles) must be retargeted at the military, administrative, and energy hubs of Moscow and the Moscow region. Moscow must burn for the war to end.
It is necessary to begin dismantling the aggressor’s energy supply by systematically destroying hydroelectric and thermal power plants on the Volga. Power outages in the Central Federal District of the Russian Federation are the fastest way to shut down military factories and disrupt the rear.
«Virtual reality» must be eliminated: stop simulating successes in our own media. Mobilize the economy for a single goal: producing sufficient weapons to eliminate over 2,500 Russian-fascist invaders per day, thereby reaching the «threshold of irreparable losses» for the enemy.
- Recommendations for Western countries: From «Deterrence» to «Victory»
The US and European Union administrations must shift their paradigm: from «support» to «threat elimination.» The West must officially recognize its goal not as «peace negotiations,» but as the complete military defeat and disintegration of the Russian Federation. Any other outcome is an encouragement to the aggressor.
The primary goal of a defensive war should not be «preserving the territorial integrity of Ukraine,» but rather the complete demilitarization and elimination of the Russian Federation’s sovereignty as a military entity.
Lifting geographic taboos: Immediately lift all restrictions on the use of Western weapons (ATACMS, Storm Shadow, Taurus, F-16, etc.) against targets in Moscow. The aggressor’s security is complicity in its crimes. Moscow must become a legitimate military target. The security of Russian headquarters, factories, and decision-making centers in the capital, ensured by Western prohibitions, must be immediately terminated.
In the military-technical sphere, a technological breakthrough is needed, not the disposal of old weapons. The West must ensure the transfer of technology to Ukraine for the mass production of its own long-range missiles and other weapons. If the Ukrainian defense industry is «idle,» the West is obliged to invest in its revival in Ukraine or in secure hubs. Nuclear weapons must be deployed in Poland and Ukraine as a symmetrical response to the deployment of nuclear weapons in the Republic of Belarus, temporarily occupied by Moscow.
At the national parliamentary level, legal recognition of the Russian Federation as a fascist and terrorist state is necessary (especially under US law). This will automatically nullify any «gray schemes» and make support for Moscow toxic for global business.
Economic strangulation of the aggressor without exception. End all «gray» schemes through which components for Russian missiles are still being delivered to Moscow via Western companies.
Transferring assets of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation not for «restoration,» but for «weapons»: Direct $300 billion in frozen Russian assets not for «social support,» but for the emergency expansion of Ukraine’s missile capacity and the purchase of strategic weapons. All frozen $300 billion should be used for the purchase and production of weapons capable of reaching the Urals.
Legal finale: Preparation of an international tribunal, the purpose of which is not only to convict individuals, but also to recognize the Russian Federation as a terrorist state, followed by demilitarization and denazification.
«International law is not restored at the negotiating table with war criminals.» It is restored at the moment when missile and bomb strikes on Moscow deprive the aggressor of the physical ability to continue the war. The only path to peace is the transformation of the ‘One-City Empire’ into a territory devoid of military potential. Either the West gives Ukraine the opportunity to finish off the beast in its lair, or on February 24, 2027, we will be discussing the beginning of the fifth year of genocide in Europe. There is no third option.»
References:
[1]. Yurii Shulipa: Why does the aggressor suffer few manpower losses? Anti-Russian Forum. February 7, 2023. https://antiruzzia.org/iurii-shulipa-pochiemu-aghriessor-niesiet-malyie-potieri-zhivoi-sily/
[2]. Shulipa, Y. Y. Putin’s military plans against Ukraine for 2021: report-forecast /. Information publication of «National Politics». — Kyiv-Berlin. — K.: Stylos, 2021. — 48 p., p. 33. URL: http://www.belousenko.com/books/kgb/shulipa_putin_ukraine.pdf
[3]. Yurii Shulipa: The elimination of 50,000 Russian-fascist invaders per month: are these small or large losses for the aggressor? Editor-in-Chief: January 30, 2026. URL:
https://opinions.glavred.info/poka-moskvichi-ne-oshchushchayut-na-sebe-bremya-voyny-voyna-budet-prodolzhatsya-10736489.html
[4]. Yurii Shulipa: Ukraine’s victory is delayed for a year due to the White House’s pro-Russian stance. Anti-Russian Forum. July 28, 2023. URL:
https://antiruzzia.org/iurii-shulipa-pobieda-ukrainy-otkladyvaietsia-na-ghod-iz-za-prorossiiskoi-pozitsii-bielogho-doma/
[5] Yurii Shulipa: Why Moscow’s conventional war against NATO is imminent. March 24, 2024. Thechechenpress.com. URL:
https://thechechenpress.com/developments/17900-yurii-shulipa-why-moscows-conventional-war-against-nato-is-imminent.html