The talks in Abu Dhabi could have been a turning point in the search for ways to de-escalate the Russian-Ukrainian war. American diplomats proposed a concrete step toward de-escalating military action: temporarily halting attacks on energy infrastructure in the midst of the winter cold. Moscow agreed and, as always, violated the agreement.
On January 23-24, representatives of the US and Russia discussed possible steps to reduce tensions in the capital of the United Arab Emirates. Washington proposed suspending attacks on the Ukrainian power grid for a week due to the abnormal cold weather in Ukraine. This was intended as a gesture of goodwill and to create conditions for continuing the dialogue until the next meeting of the negotiators.
The proposal was clearly humanitarian in nature: millions of Ukrainians would be able to survive the cold without the risk of freezing in their homes without light and heat. It would seem that such a step would not require great sacrifices from either side, but would open up space for de-escalation and further negotiations.
Moscow agreed to this proposal, but, as usual, soon violated it. Less than four days later, Russia launched a large-scale attack on Ukraine with 71 missiles of various types and about 450 strike drones, which were aimed specifically at energy facilities. This is one of the largest strikes in recent months, bringing Ukraine’s energy sector to the brink of collapse.
The timing was chosen with particular cruelty and cynicism typical of the Russians — another cold snap hit Ukraine during those very days. Millions of people were once again at risk of freezing.
Analyzing what happened, the Ukrainian side draws attention to Moscow’s cynical tactics. Russia used the time of the negotiations not to seek compromises, but to accumulate stocks of missiles and drones and choose the moment of the coldest weather to strike critical infrastructure.
For Russia, diplomacy has always served not as an instrument of peace and cooperation, but as a cover for destructive intentions and preparations for aggression against other states. In this case, too, having agreed to the proposal of the American mediators, the Kremlin used the break in strikes on Ukrainian energy facilities to stockpile missiles and drones in order to strike even harder. Putin used the negotiations as a cover to prepare an attack on the civilian population.
The breakdown of the agreements demonstrates once again that Moscow does not want to end the war. Any peace initiatives are perceived by the Russian leadership only as a tactical pause to regroup its forces. Those who do not understand this, or pretend not to understand, are either idiots or agents recruited by the Russian special services.
This violation proves for the thousandth time that Russia and its promises cannot be trusted. Moscow violates all agreements. Always.
If the Kremlin is using the humanitarian pause during the deadly cold spell to prepare for strikes, what is the point of diplomatic efforts?
Ukraine continues to support American peace initiatives but insists on a realistic approach. Kyiv emphasizes that effective diplomacy requires not only negotiations but also action.
Sanctions pressure must be increased. The current restrictions are clearly not enough to change the Russian leadership’s plans to continue the war.
The only way to stop the war is to increase military aid to Ukraine. Only force can compel Russia to end its aggression.
History shows that weakness always provokes the aggressor to escalate, while strength forces them to seek compromise.
The events following the talks in Abu Dhabi are a lesson not only for diplomats, but for everyone who believes in the possibility of negotiating peace with the Kremlin. Russia has demonstrated that it is ready to use any pause in pressure to gather strength and launch new attacks.
This does not mean that diplomacy should be abandoned. But it does mean that negotiations must be conducted from a position of strength, with clear verification mechanisms and immediate consequences for violations. Otherwise, every peace initiative will turn into a respite for the aggressor and a new tragedy for the victims of aggression.
Four days — that is all it took to dispel any illusions about Russia’s readiness to de-escalate. The question now is how long it will take for the international community to draw the right conclusions.